E3 Strategy: The Ambitions of the Big Three for 2010 & Beyond - News
by VGChartz Staff , posted on 16 June 2010 / 4,092 Views
Every E3 Conference held by the big three is carefully orchestrated to outline the highlights of the next year. What can we learn about the next year from the conferences held earlier this week? You can find out below. Each hardware manufacturer is divided into four sections - Corporate Strategy which examines the approach to the market, Year of the _____ which looks at some unexpected outcome that has, will or could occur from the strategy, conference strengths, and conference weaknesses.
Nintendo
Corporate Strategy
During E3 2009, I wrote that Nintendo had won the show because, materially speaking, nothing had changed in the short term for Wii or DS despite the unveiling of Move and Kinect. Neither device was priced or given more than a vague release window. X360 and PS3 didn't get any price cuts either - and Nintendo had three huge games to push Wii late in the year with Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus, and New Super Mario Bros. Wii. The first two didn't really do much hardware pushing initially, and for about a month after the PS3 price cut, it looked like Wii momentum had gone out the window. However, with Wii available at $200, and some help from third parties, Wii had a massive fourth quarter of 2009 with roughly 50% market share, even with X360 and PS3 no longer prohibitively expensive.
For 2010, the big holiday game is what I like to call "New Donkey Kong Country Wii". On the SNES, Donkey Kong Country sold over 9m units. Other Donkey Kong games on the SNES and N64 totalled 3-6m units. SNES and N64 however had far smaller hardware bases than Wii and much smaller software sales (Wii software is nearly larger than both combined already). With good reviews, there is no reason Donkey Kong Country Returns can't sell at least 5m units on Wii. Although Nintendo didn't show it off at their press conference, Wii Party will likely end up selling 5m-10m units, as Mario Party 8 did. Kirby and Metroid will do well too, but they won't top more than a few million at best.
Nintendo certainly doesn't have the capacity on the Wii side to release three games in a single year which will top 20m units as it did in 2009. Fortunately, the company has alot of help this year from third parties. Off the top of my head, Sonic Colors, NBA Jam, Just Dance 2, Goldeneye Wii, Michael Jackson Dance, Def Jam Rapstar, Epic Mickey, Carnival Games and others should all top 1m units. On the next tier, non-exclusive and lesser titles like Sonic the Hedgehog 4 (WiiWare), The Conduit 2, DJ Hero 2, Rockband 3, Tiger Woods, Madden, and others will put up decent numbers as well.
At $200, and with a wide variety of software arriving and bundled with the Wii, plus an enormous backlog of big titles Nintendo seems to believe Wii is strong enough to hold off Kinect and Move for at least another year.
On the handheld side, Nintendo obviously unveiled the 3DS. Word on the E3 showfloor is that Nintendo showed off the 3DS to several developers about six months ago, but somehow kept it a secret to have an impressive lineup ready for the show. Graphically, the system looks to be at about GC or Wii levels. To me, the big story is the movie playing ability of the system as Nintendo has been very slow to expand its systems beyond gaming functionality. Some of the staff are impressed with the 3D photos, although I personally can't imagine using that real often. The unveiling of games like Kid Icarus and numerous other traditional franchises likely tells us two things: Nintendo is aware that smart phones can eat up the casual side of its portable business, such as the Imagine games, and the mind-game content like Brain Training / Cross Word puzzles. However, with better graphics, 3D, and the ongoing decline of the PSP market, Nintendo is in a good position to defend itself and third parties who make 'core' games, and to help them become easier to play. This is especially true of Japanese third parties who want and need to make more than $1-2 per title on a portable game. So 3DS will likely be a traditional system - building from core games out to mass market rather than the other way around. This can't be said for sure, as pricing could be too high and launch timing hasn't been revealed yet ( I expect late 2010 in Europe and Japan). Assuming content like Super Street Fighter 4 performs well on 3DS, it is likely that the Wii successor will get more third party support. For now, Nintendo must be content with its DS business, as major games continue to roll out for it such as Golden Sun, Layton, Super Scribblenauts, Rockband 3, Pokemon Ranger, and more. The number of million sellers on DS is definitely declining - but it should be a slow decline as DS hardware and software figures look like they'll be around 24m and 130m for the year. Both are still very respectable figures, and even as the 3DS takes over on the hardware side, the DS software market isn't likely to collapse given that perhaps 200m+ machines will be capable of playing DS games one day (3DS & DS).
The other thing to watch is 3DS game pricing, and what it will cost to download games. I'd like to see 3DS downloadable games go for as little as $1 to try to compete with the cellphones for the indie/casual segment that is growing, but its unlikely to happen.
Year (Age?) of the Platformer
Wii has become something of a dream platform for platformers because of NIntendo's core / casual fusion. Every major NES, Genesis, SNES and N64 platformer in addition to Galaxy 1-2, NSMB Wii, Epic Mickey, Bit.Trip.Runner, Lost Wind 1-2, A Boy & His Blob, De Blob, Nyxquest, Klonoa, Kirby's Epic Yarn, Donkey Kong Country Returns, Max & The Magic Marker, Sonic Colors, Sonic and the Secret Rings, Sonic the Hedgehog 4, Flipp's Twisted World, and Jett Rocket will be available by the end of 2010 for Wii. Given the relative dearth of platformers in the previous two generations for Nintendo systems, it finally struck me how impressive the turn around has been this generation for the genre. With so much content available, Wii is probably now the best system ever made for platformers, which is a good position for Nintendo to stand on to counter the inevitable negative commercials that will come later in 2010 against the Wii as a casual platform with only lousy games.
Strengths of the Nintendo Conference/ Showing
Nintendo remains the motion leader - the conference audience was surprised that Zelda Wii had difficulties - that tells you everything about what Wii is and does - and will be for the forseeable future as the HD market splits into two different types of motion control. Without revealing such essential details as price, release date, or media format, Nintendo still managed to get alot of people excited about the 3DS. DS remains a platform viable enough for huge projects too, even as it declines.
Weaknesses of the Nintendo Conference / Showing
If Kinect or Move do somehow catch on against all odds (price, awareness, and userbase being the main issues), selling at a Wii like pace, Nintendo essentially has to launch a new system. That isn't a good position to be in since the Wii software market remains enormous. Still, with a Wii successor likely to come in 2011 or 2012, Nintendo could have a tough year at some point if the new system doesn't fare as well while Move or Kinect catches on with the masses.
3DS also doesn't look like it will be a 'genre creation' system, so much as a 'genre refinement' system, going by the launch titles. It is a jump similar to SNES vs. NES...if the SNES had launched with the special 3D FX (Mario 64 3D, not Avatar 3D) chip initially.
We also don't know if 3DS will be alot of money, or when it will launch. Previously, Nintendo said it would launch by March 2011, but that wasn't really confirmed at the show. Since no DS price cut was announced in the USA at E3, despite cuts elsewhere, it is very possible that 3DS is launching later in the USA than in the rest of the world, as DS is still very close to its peak in the world's largest videogame market. But we don't know. Nintendo also didn't address how it will advertise the 3DS if it can't explain how it is '3D' without letting millions of people try it. For E3, the buzz is strong mainly because thousands have already tested the device out for themselves. Because of the tricky advertising, 3DS might scare alot of potential developers off until word of mouth is sufficient to carry the device forward.
Microsoft
Corporate Strategy
Halo, Gears and Call of Duty all sell real well on X360 and they were at E3. But they cater to a specific type of player. As a software company, Microsoft wants to cater to all lifestyles and tastes. Enter Kinect. Heading into the show, Kinect was probably seen as the most polarizing technology known to show up at E3. Some believed it would be amazing, others believed it would be terrible. Neither is really the case. Many of the games look like alot of fun, but many of them look absolutely terrible too. Right now, Dance Central is probably the closest game to a killer-app for the device, although Ubisoft has some very promising content too. The issue is dancing games sell mostly to women and X360 has roughly three male gamers per female gamer. Without a game for men, that will draw in women and ease them into Kinect as well, the device will have lukewarm penetration.
The natural game to draw in men that is simple enough to attract women in droves is a sports compilation. Unfortunately for Microsoft, dozens of motion sports games exist already, and thats just for Wii. Move will be launching in September, while Kinect comes in November. Beyond that, PS3 and Wii can now get ports from each other more easily. At the moment, most developers make games for the HD systems, Wii, Wii & DS, or every platform under the sun. With Kinect that will likely change - for better or for worse. As a huge hit, Kinect motion games could be developed controller-lessly, harming the Wii and killing the Move. Otherwise, development is likely to favor PS3 and Wii for motion, as a number of third parties have done quite well with Wii games even though there are few blockbusters (3m+).
Microsoft also has yet to officially announce the Kinect price. With the X360 Slim, the X360 is slowly getting cheaper - but Kinect is rumored to cost as much as $150 - essentially more than a Wii (since it includes two games) - before the X360 hardware is factored into the equation. The demographic Microsoft wants doesn't buy hardware that is risky and expensive, and thus for Kinetic to be a success out of the gate, it needs to be cheap. At $50, in addition to the X360, Microsoft could make some real head way, but it will likely be $100 or so to gauge interest first. No information really exists on Kinect game prices either. But if the idea is to get women and new gamers to buy an X360 for it, they won't be playing traditional X360 games, and so the games for new audience should be cheaper - probably $40 or less. That won't please developers, but there are only 15 launch games supposedly so at the start it won't be too competitive anyway. Kinect has enough promise to keep X360 roughly flat for the all important Christmas quarter, if its cheap (<$100) but after that the jury is still out.
Microsoft also continues to push online usage of X360. The ESPN deal will more users online. Since Sony has an exclusive MLB deal, and ESPN shows MLB games, it will be interesting to see if MLB is on both services.
Year of The Lower Body: Soccer is the Secret
As a betting man, the genres that should perform the best on Kinect are:
Soccer, Fitness, and dancing. Wii doesn't (and Move doesn't look like it will) really benefit foot-oriented activities - and so Kinect has alot of potential there for genre creation. Microsoft still has alot of trouble fighting off Sony and Nintendo in Japan and continental Europe, so having the best soccer experience could be a pretty big deal in those regions, and cut into the sports fan base on Wii (which is best for tennis / golf / bowling), and PS3 (HD soccer & racing). Unfortunately, in the USA, American football probably doesn't benefit much and thats Microsoft's best market. Still, if I was running Xbox Europe, my plan would be:
Launch Kinect cheaply
Pay Konami and EA a hell of alot of money for special Soccer games.
Get men to play the soccer games.
When their wives and girlfriends learn of Kinect, bombard them with Fitness and Dancing game ads.
It sounds simple, but Eye Toy was always most successful in Europe, so the outline above, which targets men, and then women could work in Europe. The trick will be in Japan (where the base in tiny) and the USA where American football probably doesn't benefit from Kinect while soccer lags behind.
Strengths of Microsoft Conference / Showing
Microsoft announced Kinect as "Project Natal" - but linguistically speaking the code name had nothing to do with camera or what Kinect is really. So the current name is much better as far as getting people to remember what the thing is and what it does. Microsoft also made it pretty clear that the people intended to benefit from Kinect are women, and so it doesn't seem to have alientated its audience, which is a hell of a trick given how much focus Kinect will get at E3.
The X360 Slim is also a good idea, as it will prolong the impact of any real price cut and allow people to put their X360s in rooms lacking ethernet cables. Wireless internet is just a good thing for video games.
Showing Metal Gear early in a show is always a good way to build 'street' credit too, although it seems like most systems get a Metal Gear these days.
Weakness of the Microsoft Conference / Showing
None of the software on the show floor for Kinect really seems designed for Japanese tastes. Most of the support for the Kinect comes from western developers. That is something of a shame, as there is an opportunity with Kinect to make the X360 more viable in Japan. As far as core games go, the deeper the generation gets, the fewer titles appear to be exclusive, and that simply makes the X360 more like the PS3, and the PS3 more like the PS3. Developers benefit, but it would probably be better for Microsoft to take on more in-house studios now that it is supporting a much broader array of content internally. Rare and Molyneaux can only do so much.
Sony
Corporate Strategy
Sony's PS1 and PS2 empires were built upon exceptionally strong third party support. Today, alot of games are still made for PS3 but relatively few are exclusive. The point of E3 for Sony was to convince developers to move alot of the content that has gone to X360 and Wii back to Wii or at least back to multiplatform status. Move is designed to get some of the Wii content back, but it doesn't appear to be a huge push. Sony is pretty excited about 3D technology, but with the 3DS doing 3D without glasses, alot of the focus on 3D for PS3 has been silenced to some degree. The PS2 is still selling fairly well worldwide, as its software, but the system is essentially on fumes now. PSP is declining too, so it isn't surprising that PSP got a lot less focus than PS3, where far more software is selling. Once the 3DS arrives (supposedly before March 2011), the PSP market should begin to really deteriorate, and thus we'll likely see a PSP2 announced by the end of 2010 - probably at TGS as Sony has expensive operations which must be offset by large software sales.
PSN Plus was probably the biggest news for Sony in terms of 'services'. With PSN Plus, Sony will have a new gaming revenue to help offset future price cuts, and the declining PS2 / PSP markets.
Once PSP software begins declining more quickly in the western markets as it has in Japan, PSP Go and PSP will see price cuts, but that isn't really happening yet, the declines are slow, so the lack of a PSP price cut makes sense.
Move is launching in September - it will be interesting to see if pushes PS3 over Wii for a while in Japan and cuts into the Kinect hype - but as a $400 bundle with PS3 hardware it probably will have a slow start and pick up some with age as the price drops. Still, Nintendo will likely block Move with a new Wii (Wii 2, not Wii HD) in 2011 or 2012 regardless of how the device performs.
Year of Playstation Profits
With PS3 software peaking, PSN Plus, and hardware costs dropping without a need for huge price cuts, Sony should make a fair amount of money this year from Playstation products. Last fiscal year, the company lost alot of money in the Networked Products division, and other recent fiscal years have been no kinder. This year is likely akin to an oasis though - as PSP and PS3 will need big price cuts at some point, and R & D for PSP2 and PS4 has to be ratcheting up pretty heavily to make those systems DS / Wii / disruption proof. Sony also has a console version of Gran Turismo this year, one of its biggest franchises which sell millions of units and contribute greatly to the bottom line.
Strengths of the Sony Conference / Showing
Sony announced over 30 games for Move, and did detail pricing for the device. Sony is charging $50 / PS-Wand and $30 per Wand attachment, and so the company will make money on each controller it sells in all likelihood. Move has games which play and look similar to Wii games - some of which have sold millions of copies in Japan - and so there is some potential for Move to lift PS3 in Japan.
Weaknesses of the Sony Conference / Showing
As with Kinect, the Move may be too expensive. Sony also didn't emphasize the Last Guardian after it made a big splash last year. There isn't really a killer-app for Move - and thats a bit scary as Wii Sports essentially sold Wii for a year or two. Sony is also only encouraging developers to try to make games similar to successful Wii games. What is to stop those companies from continuing to make successful Wii games on the much larger base? Most of the best Wii games also don't benefit from HD, Blu Ray or any of the PS3 features, so making games for Move is tantamount in some respects to making more expensive Wii games for a smaller platform. Porting can go some way to solving the issue, but games designed for a wand are likely to be made for Wii first with a few exceptions until the PS3 Wand base reaches at least 10m or 20m homes. The need for a PS-Eye and 3D glasses, and a 3D TV to fully enjoy motion gaming and 3D gaming for Sony will be difficult to advertise in the wake of Wii and 3DS.
Contact Vgchartz at jmazel@vgchartz.com
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@Showertea how you are so wrong with your prices each move controller is $50 and you dont need the navi controller as you can use a standard ps3 controller, the ps eye cam costs just $20 where the fuck you think its $40 ??? so you do the maths, 4 player on move is $220 plus a ps3 $520 even with the navi controllers added its only $610 now include a 3D enabled blu-ray player in your Wii bundle and your talking near as damit $760 OWNED BITCH.
@Tridrakious One complete PS Move controller, without the camera, is $80, including both the remote and the 'nun-chuck' thing. If you want to play a 4-player PS3 Move game, you'll need a PS3 (I believe the cheapest is $300), a PS Eye ($40), 4 remotes (4 @ $80 a piece) and the game (On PS3, likely $60). That's $710. To do the same thing on the Wii, you'd need a Wii ($200), 3 additional Wiimotes, Nunchucks, and Wii Motion Pluses (As one complete set is included in the core bundle) at $70 a piece, and a game for $50, or $460.
While Natal made me think since the beginning to dance and fitness games, I didn't ever before thought about soccer games, maybe because unlike most Italians, I really don't like it very much (and the World cup matches I watched up until now made me like it even less), but thinking about it without my negative bias against soccer, it could be a killer app in EU, big parts of Asia, Africa and Central and South America.
I think Sony had the Best E3, PS move will be big, I can't wait, I will buy the first day, Killzone 3, in full 3D and PS move support will be HUGH, also GT5, and at last Twisted Medal, looks amazing, Sorcery looks great for PS move, also the Heroes game with Jack, daxter and all the others looks like a ton of fun, So Sony great job can't wait, I think PS move is fairly prices, and man just cant wait to start playing.
Move is not expensive. I remember that a rumor was the controller would cost $65. It's $15 cheaper than that rumor.
Also the PS3 bundle has a 120 gig PS3, a DualShock 3, PlayStation Move controller, PlayStation Eye and Sports Champions. That's alot. I hope no one really expected Sony to launch this bundle at a lower price than the stand alone PS3 package.
@binary solo: there is already video chat not skype but one for the ps3. you cant watch movies are anything like ms demonstrated but you can make video calls. they show make people more aware of it though.
Kinect an Move felt more or what Wii is already doing with addons. Kinect need some kind of FEEL feed back to really work (maybe the "Reactor" Vest). Move was Wii-mote + on PS3. 3DS ruled E3 and Nintendo still leads the charge with franchises you know and enjoy. "Potential" is the word I kept thinking when viewing all Big 3 E3 press conferences.
I'd like to think that the 3DS is just refinement of the original DS strategy; perfecting the mold.
There are a lot of hurdles for Kinect and Move to jump in order to succeed.
I disagree that Nintendo is trying to make a traditional handheld system with the 3DS, rather the issue is, Nintendo knows it can get the lower tier gamers easy with games like Nintendogs and cats, even with smartphone games, Nintendo games are still going to sell to everyone, what they are concerned is being able to move upmarket with bridge games and upmarket games, something that people have been saying they haven't done very well this gen, remember, hey are attempting to disrupt the industry, this means they have to move upmarket, not to mention, I think Nintendo realizes that at E3, people are more interested in the upmarket games rather than the lower market, so the focus this year is more reflective of that.
@ Shonen: Don't count on it. I'm predicting a Q4 2011 release.
@welshbloke: ok, everything was going just fine until you included the voice being integrated with it. Move also has voice integrated with it, but barely needs it at the moment because the controller is enough. There is still a ton of room to expand on the Move, while Kinect will likely require a lot of voice commands.
I will make it short , I cant see how a PSP2 could be relevant, PS3 may sell better 360, and Nintendo ruled this E3, the only low point was zelda demo with interference on stage , but hands-on all ready proves that WM+ works like it should , too bad its only for 2011 hope Q1
I can't even begin count the number of errors on here and I didn't even get to watch the Sony or Nintendo conferences (cable/internet/ even phone was out because of storms in So. IL).
I am surprised Sony aren't pushing the fact that PSEye (PS2 Eyetoy does too) has a microphone so voice / sound capture can be a significant part of game control and even general UI. Seems rather odd to have a microphone yet do almost nothing with it (there are some challenges in Eyepet that use voice / sound to interact with the pet). I would hope that with Socom 4 it would be possible to use the mic in PSEye for both in game controls and multiplayer chat. PS3 should get video chat or Skype at a minimum for non-game functionality (should have made Skype available from the outset really).
You mean the Wii sold Wii Sports, because it was BUNDLED. amd LOL at your statement about Wii having better precision as a Motion device over Move. Maybe you should re-watch E3.
Another problem of playing proper football with Kinect is that the interaction of a real ball with your feet is much more complex than a racket or club swing or a bowling throw. I don't think Kinect can correctly capture that or that someone who actually play football can do it without feeling the contact. As such, a Kinect football game would be something very simple, not worthy to anything more than casual play.
If we park the cost of the Kinect system to one side as we still do not know that yet then I see Microsoft having the easiest job advertising its products. Wii+ and Move just look the same even if this is not the case. Kinect clearly is different and I can see this being an easy thing to demonstrate to the casual market.
The Ubisoft fitness demonstration was extremely good as was the Dance Central both of which could help massively with the take up of Kinect. The Kinectimals was also very good.
Now combine this with demonstrations of Voice and controllerless access to the Xbox and you have a winner.
Also lets not forget the new Xbox just in time for the Xmas period and I think Microsoft can look towards a good festive period.
Microsoft's conference was awful. They showed some bad Kinect games, but completely forgot their loyal fans. Some timed exclusive CoD DLC and multiplatform games won't save that. MS goes where the money goes, and that is the casual market with ridiculous Kinect party games. Have fun with Halo:Reach and Gears of War 3 as long these game still come out.
Sonys conference was okay. Not really good but not bad. Move finally showed how accurate it is and the HUGE support from third-party studios. Overall good lineup for Move launch, but they really need to get more games coming or else it ends like PS3 launch lineup. PSN+ sounds great, but we've yet to see what it really offers. Game linup was also really good. KZ3, Infamous2, Motorstorm 3, Twisted Metal, GT5 release date, Portal 2. Overall, I missed a "bang" moment, something that blowed our minds away.
Nintendos conference was undoubtly the best. HUGE, really HUGE lineup for 3DS. Zelda Wii also looked awsome, although I don''t like the art style, but that can still change. I always a fan of Kirby, so Epic Yarn is a must for me. Epic Mickey looks epic (bad joke, I know). Kid Icarus was a big surpise. Donkey Kong Country Returns looks like a lot of fun + all the other great games they've announced. I missed a "bang" just like with Sony's press conference, but the awesome lineup of games balanced that for me.
But strangely I missed Mario somehow on the conference.
Im really looking forward to move, I wasnt convinced till yesterday, but that "sorcery" had something :D, but only one controller. And damn Little Big Planet looks sooooo amazing, That is the game of the Decade, and the next!
Sonys sections seems very very small... :-S i think Nintendo did allot this year.. a new DK is all good for me its kinda sad that it isn't by Rare though...
im excited about Kinect i think once people feel what its like they will love it... its not about the graphics is about the exsprence being new just like the wii was.
They are not soccer games, they are football games. I see zero chance of football games working with Kinect. Playing them is about playing with friends, and you are not going to get 4 people playing football at the same time in front of the TV, and that is what people want
