Just realized that PS3 has passed 2.0 million in Japan.  The console is still tracking similarly to Gamecube and PS1 in Japan, all three consoles were around 2.0 million units about 67-75 weeks from launch.

However:

- Gamecube tailed off pretty quickly from this point onwards.

- At about this time from launch PS1 got a major boost from Tekken 2 and sold 30k+ for 8 weeks, which Gamecube and PS3 have shown an inability to do so far outside of either the immediate launch period or December-January.  PS1 in contrast had relatively low holidays, but was boosted by innovative new software like the aforementioned Tekken 2 

-  PS1 had a weaker launch than GC, and about the same as PS3 initially, before falling behind PS3 as well due to incongruous launch timing.  About 1/2 a year in, around 1 million units each, PS1 began passing PS3, and since about week 26 it has seen a low and steady rise cumulatively with occasional bumps.  PS3 and GC climb at a comparable rate, but did not get frequent and extended bumps through 75 weeks like PS1 did.

- Extending the 75 week graph out to twice the length of time shows that despite similar sales for GC and PS1 through 75 weeks, there was a five million+ difference in lifetime sales between GC and PS1 by week 150.  This was made possible by holiday sales in Dec 96'-Feb 97' (from holidays, FFVII, and momentum) of 100k+ for a large number of weeks.  While PS3 is going to get a Final Fantasy title, the game is likely half a year (27 weeks) away at least from Japanese release.   Wii is 3.6 million units ahead of PS3 right now in Japan.  If it outsells PS3 by less than it is now, say 20k/week on average for 27 weeks, it will be over 4 million units ahead through week, and it will likely be closer to 4.25 million 

With all that said, it looks as if the PS3 will eventually be tracking faster than Gamecube in Japan, though a lead of 4 million is essentially insurmountable in Japan, just as a lead of 10 million through 100 weeks is just about insurmountable in the Americas.   

Interesting stuff. It's going to be quiet a show when FF comes out, I just wonder if it will have a long-term effect on the PS3's fortunes there.

Tekken 6 will be coming out soon. =P

The main problem is that there isnt a lot of software that the japanese like on the PS3 at the moment.  Once there is an RPG on it things will change.

I'm sure things will improve, but I doubt they will change.  It's far too big a difference.  Japan doesn't really adjust.  Things are set in stone in the land of the rising sun.  Thanks to FFXIII the PS3 should do around 7 million lifetime in Japan.  Hardly a flop, but certainly not what Sony wants.

Congrats PS3.

MGS4.

And Tekken 6 should also be hitting sometime this year, though I don't think it will have quite the impact that Tekken 2 did.

MGS never sell more than 850k in Japan lifetime, and I don´t expect huge impact of Tekken, the only savior for PS3 in Japan is FFXIII.

MGS 2/3 broke a million each in Japan (remember, you have to include the sales of MGS2: Substance and MGS3: Subsistence), and Konami has said that they're aiming for 1 million with MGS4 also.  Given MGS4's greater accessibility, the recent release of the MGS Essentials Collection, and the most hype for any MGS yet, I don't see why it couldn't come close to a million.  Hell, it may even surpass 1 million like Konami hopes.

And I think Tekken as a whole has decreased in popularity given SSB's success. It's still the best selling fighter series after SSB, though, not including the many incarnations of SFII.

 I'll agree with the 7 million figure here.  However, more will do with the compact version of the PS3 than FF XIII.

Maybe, but we probably won't know if they release both together ala PSP. They should be down to 45nm by the time FF comes out.