From a gamers' perspective, what's important in a console war is to get developers' support for their console of choice. Total hardware sales can be fun to look at, but in reality they only matter to the bottom-line of the companies which make them (MS/Sony).

Even now, there are a lot of heated discussions on whether PS3 or 360 will win the HD console war. However, I believe these squabbles can stop, as that war is over from a gamers' perspective. The reasons for this are:

1- Both consoles are virtually dead in Japan (with very little chance of recovering in a useful timeframe), the PS3 has an edge in Europe (where the 360 still sells well), and the 360 has an edge in America (where the PS3 will continue to sell well too).

2- The development cost of making 360/PS3 games is, by all accounts, only slightly above the cost of making a PS3 only or 360 only game.

Due to number 1, it's clear that these two consoles will continue to sell well, and their userbases will never be too far apart from each other. Reason number 2 above will ensure that it will always be worth it to port a 360 game to the PS3, and vice-versa. With only a few exceptions, the only PS3/360 exclusives we'll see will be the result of moneyhats from Sony and MS to game developers.

When you look at the big picture, it's clear that Microsoft and Sony have laid all their cards on the table. Both companies had the financial capability and will to ensure that their console wouldn't lose the war early. Both companies spent enough money to provide worthwhile exclusive games for their consoles. Microsoft and Sony will continue being so aggressive that none of them will be able to gain a significant userbase size advantage. The results of that are obvious for developers - if you make your game PS3 or 360 exclusive, you're wasting money.

However, the fun is not over. The real war now is HD vs ED gaming (360/PS3 vs Wii). The reasons for this are:

1- The Wii is vastly different from the 360/PS3, both in terms of processing power and control scheme. This means that it's not cheap to port from 360/PS3 to Wii and vice-versa.

2- Game development costs are said to be much lower on the Wii, mainly due to lower cost of developing ED graphical assets vs HD ones.

3- Even before Nintendo announces the new level of Wii production, the Wii is inching closer and closer to near-50% market share, which means that choosing to target the Wii as a development platform will give you access to a userbase which is nearly as big as 360/PS3 combined.

The economical reality resulting from those factors is what will determine developers' decisions of today and tomorrow. That's where the fight is at now.

 

NJ5 said: 3- Even before Nintendo announces the new level of Wii production, the Wii is inching closer and closer to near-50% market share, which means that choosing to target the Wii as a development platform will give you access to a userbase which is nearly as big as 360/PS3 combined.

 Did I miss something, or are we not still at 1.8 Million? 

 

Just_Ben said: NJ5 said: 3- Even before Nintendo announces the new level of Wii production, the Wii is inching closer and closer to near-50% market share, which means that choosing to target the Wii as a development platform will give you access to a userbase which is nearly as big as 360/PS3 combined.   Did I miss something, or are we not still at 1.8 Million?

Who knows? Nintendo didn't announce anything yet. The yearly fiscal report will be out on the 24th, perhaps they'll announce it at the accompanying investors' conference.

 

this analysis is good ,,but it's short sighted as it's assuming the current trend for the next 4-5 years to come.

At the moment it's true but it might change in next 2 years

I wholeheartedly agree with the OP.

no it doesn't look at the sales.



We haven't had ONE of the really big PS3 franchises yet, the cheapest PS3 still costs 400$ and you say its over? I do not say that the PS3 will crush the 360 but wait till end 2008 before calling it finished thanks.

In the end I agree multiplatforms will be much more important than exclusives this gen so both consoles will live on, but I would be really surprised if the PS3 monthly sales lead over the 360 would not get bigger as we move on.

4/ FOR ME, the Wii userbase is VASTLY different from the PS3/Xbox360 meaning both consoles will exist.

Even more, since there will not be a hardcore/casual winning console like the PS2 was but only a :

Wii : winner for casual
vs
PS360 : winner for hardcore

(that explain why this generation the Wii is not able to kill the PS360 as the PS2 killed the DC/GC/Xbox, too many games are still released on PS360, at least for the moment)

Studios will just use 2 team devs to make their games directed toward casual or hardcore :
1 making Wii more casual games vs 1 making PS360 more hardcore games

At the end, the "Wii gets all the games" will not happen ...

(this doesn't mean :
Wii will stop sealing
Wii will get less exclusive
Wii will get less good games
Wii will not reach 200M WW
PS3 and Xbox360 are NOT killing each other)

The Wii already killed the PS3 in Japan....

Kyros said: and the 360 has an edge in America no it doesn't look at the sales. Microsoft and Sony have laid all their cards on the table. We haven't had ONE of the really big PS3 franchises yet, the cheapest PS3 still costs 400$ and you say its over? I do not say that the PS3 will crush the 360 but wait till end 2008 before calling it finished thanks. In the end I agree multiplatforms will be much more important than exclusives this gen so both consoles will live on, but I would be really surprised if the PS3 monthly sales lead over the 360 would not get bigger as we move on.

The 360 has a much bigger userbase in America, and it's almost equal to the PS3 in weekly sales now. I believe the 360 in itself has an edge there, which will become more visible after it gets the price cuts it deserves (it's been out for so long with only a measly $50 price cut).

When I said that they have laid their cards on the table I meant that their strategy and their assets are all visible now. Do you think there are any significant secrets left in their strategies? We know their biggest games, we know what they're willing to do in the console war. You know what games you will get if you get a PS3 or a 360. You also know that most of the games are common to both consoles, and I don't see any reason why it would be different in the future.

 

Neither Sony nor MS have release their rumored waggle controllers so all the cards are not on the table.