NOTE:
a) When re-checking this thread you may have to hit ctrl+F5 to refresh the images.
b) Sales data is updated once a week, all VGC adjustments will be reflected in the next update.  I will occasionally make mid-week updates when the adjustments are significant enough.

OK a bit of a name change (hopefully an improvement), for those wondering it stands for (H)oliday (Y)ear over Year (P)erformance (E)xamination.  There is quite a bit of hype surrounding the holiday sales numbers so it seemed appropriate (to me at least).

Some of you will remember this from last year, some of you won't. The only change is that I'm adding one week into January this time around.

*Attention!*:  All graphs and tables depicting more than one year worth of information at a time have been updated to reflect which week in that year accounted for 'Black Friday'. For tables this is denoted by a special border around that week and for graphs this is denoted by a thicker border around the appropriate week & region.

Head to Head

What you're looking at above is the '07 VS '08 "Diff (YoY)" column for each console graphed head to head against each other.  Something you'll want to note is that the scale of this graph may change as the weeks progress if we see one of the consoles spike above a +300k week YoY.

% Diff YoY

I said early on that I would watch this graph and post it if anything interesting happened.  Well as you can see above something interesting happened.  The 360 has popped above the Wii for the week of Black Friday.  All this means is that the 360 had a larger percentage increase for the week but if you look in the background of the graph I've also added the mean value for each console which represents their percentage increase for the entire holiday season thus far.  As you can see the 360 is keeping up fairly well with the Wii in this comparison, even if it isn't keeping up in the raw units.  This difference between the Wii/360 and the PS3 is a fairly strong indicator (if you needed any more indicators) that the price is definitely a major factor.

Xbox 360

PS3

Wii

Graphs

Note: Colors on regional graphs have been adjusted for better contrast and general readability. It may be helpful to note that bright colors are 2008 and pale colors are 2007.

Week 1: The Waters Look Warm & the Wii is HOT!

• 360: Right in line with last year so far, we shouldn't expect the 360 to do anything wildly different this year.  The safe money is probably on a slight increase YoY, but it won't be a shock for a slight decrease either.
  
• PS3: Little bit of a bump from last year's number, but nothing to get excited over just yet.  Still, the PS3 should be able to improve on sales from last year given the stronger sales during the year.  As a result, any decrease would be a real disappointment, but is unlikely.
  
• Wii: Easily poised for the largest raw sales and largest YoY improvement...but that shouldn't surprise anyone.  What may surprise some folks is just how much it improves over last year, and a few jaws may be dropping if historical trends are to be believed.  Ultimately hardware availability will determine where the Wii finishes but it should handily break +2M.

Week 2: Questions Going Forward...

• 360:  The 360 has a very strong week, no doubt thanks in large part to the long anticipated launch of Gears of War 2.  This should give the 360 some momentum as we move into the holidays in earnest but will it be enough to outperform the PS3?
• PS3: With the launch of Resistance 2 this week it is a bit surprising to see the PS3 fall off compared to last year, so is this a sign of things to come or is simply a minor bump in the road as we head into the holidays?
• Wii: The Wii comes barreling into the holidays with two extremely good weeks, the question now is whether the Wii is already in full swing for the holidays or if this is simply a glimpse of what's to come?
  
• Bonus: How much do you think the software launches (or lack of software launch in the case of the Wii) effected sales this week?  Would the PS3 have been down anyways?  Would the 360 have been up anyways?  And would a big software launch of its own have even made a difference to the Wii?

Week 3: Getting Into the Swing of Things.

• 360: The addition of the regional breakdown begins to reveal that the 360 is actually seeing sales shifted into Europe, perhaps even more so than previously realized.  As a result, even though North American sales are down YoY the 360 is still outperforming the HYP thanks to those improved European sales.  This is an interesting development given the general assumption about 360 sales being strongest in NA, particularly if it holds up throughout the holidays as it seems likely that it will.
• PS3: Sticking with our focus on the new regional breakdown graphs it seems clear that the PS3 is doing a bit better in Europe this year as well.  But in this case the gains are being offset by a slight slip in the North American market as well as a more noticeable slip in the Japanese market which seems to be the biggest reason for the troubles thus far.  It will be interesting to see if the NA/EU sales can make up for this gap in future weeks, but in the meantime it has moved to a 38k unit deficit YoY.
• Wii: We could say the Wii is cooling off a bit, but it is still blazing hot as it continues to build a YoY increase now reaching to just shy of a 820k improvement.  Our regional breakdowns show solid gains in EU and NA but slight losses in JP.  The losses in JP seem to be a bit of a trend on all consoles, but in the case of the Wii these losses are somewhat insignificant and are ultimately overwhelmed by stellar performances elsewhere, particularly EU.
• Bonus: All three consoles are showing strong improvements in Europe right now, especially the 360 and Wii which have nearly doubled their performance from the year prior week for week.  The question I pose to you is simple: Why?  I look forward to hearing the theories.

Week 4:  Mysterious Misalignment Makes Many Maligned

• 360: For a console that was pegged by many to barely break even if not fall behind YoY this holiday the 360 is proving to be quite resilient at the moment.  As my title for this week suggests the misalignment of the Black Friday week has provoked a reaction from some who weren't aware of this discrepancy but once you take it into account the assessment turns from disappointment to surprise that the 360 managed to beat its Black Friday results from the last two years despite not enjoying that benefit itself...this should bode well for results next week to say the least.
  
• Wii: Similar to the 360 the Wii managed to outstrip previous Black Friday sales without the benefit of a Black Friday of its own this week.  Without taking anything away from the accomplishment for the Wii, I have to say this is what we expect from the Wii and I'm personally more impressed by the 360 being able to do this.   Now, similar to the 360 both accomplished this on the back of strong EU sales. The slight dip in NA sales indicates to me that retailers are holding on to some stock to ensure they have some for Black Friday this year, which should mean we get to see some fireworks next week (duh!).
  
• PS3: Not much to say here, the PS3 didn't do that bad considering the misalignment and EU sales remain steady YoY.  With Black Friday tomorrow the PS3 will need to have a decent week next week to keep in the running against the 360.  And given that it is Black Friday it should be a day when people are more willing to pull out their wallets which is good news for Sony.  If they're going to draw numbers at all this year, they need to start doing it next week.

Week 5: Black Friday and the Pesky Price Point Problem

• 360: I have to imagine life is good at MS right now.  With the 360 posting a 136% increase in raw hardware sales YoY and doing it with a strong showing not just in NA but in EU and yes even JP.  I can't imagine that MS is anything but pleased with the results of this holiday so far as it has pretty much been a best case scenario from week 2 until today...and there is no reason to think it will stop being good for MS.  Oh and BTW, the 360 was the only console to post positive JP growth this week, but last year's numbers were terrible, so it's not that surprising all things considered.
  
• Wii: What can you really say about the Wii anymore?  It sold like gangbusters and it doesn't even break a sweat doing it....anyone shocked?  Didn't think so.  With massive gains in NA and EU the Wii posted the second best single week sales of this generation and its isn't even close to being done...again no surprise =P
  
• PS3: Well as I said in MS's blurb, there is no reason to think things will stop being good for MS...but does that mean things will continue to be bad for Sony?  Well not necessarily.  We could still see things pick up on Sony's part, but I don't expect it to slow MS down too much for the rest of the year.  The PS3 did post its first positive growth in weeks which is a bit more positive than perhaps most folks realize.  If you take a look at the graphs for all three consoles you will notice that the week of Black Friday tends to mark the beginning of the holidays and not a one week bump.  Sure things fluctuate but once they're up, sales seem to stay up for the holidays.  Hopefully that translates into the PS3 seeing YoY growth for the remainder of the holidays, but it's not a guarantee.  Either way we should know the final verdict on the PS3's holiday season by next week.  The way it follows up Black Friday will say everything we need to know.
  

Week 6: The Battle Evolves Yet Again

• 360: As predicted by most all consoles are down this week in their worldwide total and equally expected is the fact that this drop would occur in the NA region.  Interestingly though the 360 still manages to surpass its NA performance from the year prior and for the 6th straight week more than doubles last years EU numbers.  Even Japan is about even this week (not that it makes much difference for the 360).  This continued strength after the week of Black Friday would indicate that the 360 should easily continue this strong performance through the rest of the holiday and probably finish above the majority of predictions made prior to November for the end of the year.  Regardless of how things play out the 360 should easily pass the 25M mark next week! 
  
• Wii: The Wii similar to the 360 has seen almost a doubling of sales in the EU and NA also remains very strong this week as well.  The JP numbers are down YoY but again this has more to do with the state of console sales as a whole in JP than anything else.  Just like the 360 the Wii is expect to continue a strong holiday performance and in two weeks time we might be seeing a new single week record for the most sales on a single platform, and with the numbers for this week claimed the title for fastest console to reach 40M units sold!
  
• PS3: With the PS3 down YoY in EU, NA, and JP this week it seems to be unfortunately well positioned to finish its uninspiring holiday run.  We can blame the situation on anything from price to economic issues and we can point to the recent layoffs at Sony in the hope that they are trying to correct it.  But the truth of the matter is this trend is likely to continue through the rest of the holidays and probably into the early part of next year until a price drop or some sort of bargain/bundle is offered to get people interested again. For now the only race the PS3 is in is the one to reach 20M before the end of the year, and while I'm still optimistic it can reach that goal, it is sadly no longer a "sure thing", which I likely would have insisted it was 6 weeks ago.

Week 7: Coming Into Focus, One Week at a Time...

• Note: My apologies for the extremely late Week 7 analysis
• 360: The 360 continues its stellar holiday performance posting yet another +200k weekly YoY improvement. Looking at the regional breakdown for the entire holiday it's fairly obvious that Microsoft's strategy of attacking Sony's market share in Europe has payed some very large dividends.  The reason why their strategy is working is still unclear, and as such we can't be sure if this change signals a long term switch or if it is as simple as the pressures of the economy impressing the importance of affordability into the mind of the consumer....which itself is somewhat of a wild card since we don't know for sure how long the situation will remain this way.  This raises a rather interesting question I will pose to you folks:  If the economic situation were reversed and fortunes were riding high, how would the holiday sales have been different between the 360 and PS3?  Would it have been different at all?
  
• Wii:  As I said early on the Wii was never really racing against the PS3 and 360, it's competitor this holiday was the "ghost car" of the PS2 and the two lofty goals of claiming sole control of the single week console and handheld sales records as well as being the first to break 1M units in a single region (most likely NA).  Even if the Wii crosses these lines we shouldn't celebrate to vigorously because as the final adjustments come in it could lose the spot.  Give it at least one more week before you get too excited. To be honest with the way these weeks line up to last year I'm not sure this next week is going to be the massive sales week many are expecting (it should be large though).  There is a good chance we see this years bump pushed back into Week 9 similar to the way Black Friday was offset. As my last point for the Wii I'll ask an open question:  Why did anyone in their right mind believe the Wii was going to fall short of 40M this holiday?  And at the risk of kicking a man while he is down, is it telling that many of these same folks were the people who would have laughed you out of the forums for suggesting the PS3 might not break 20M (to be fair I would have laughed at you as well...at least on the inside )?
• PS3: I've covered the PS3's performance well enough already, so I won't get down on the PS3 again here.  Instead lets focus on the prospects of the PS3 getting across 20M this holiday.  With 1.7M to go in the next 3 weeks things don't look spectacular but next week and the week after that have the potential to be enormous sales weeks the way things are lining up.

Week 8: Rosey Cheeks & Red Faces...

• As an interesting effect of the calendar situation we have one more week of solid sales to look forward to in week 9 and then we get to place our bets for how far it all comes crashing down in week 10 for each console.  The difference this year is that we have ~4 days of X-mas shopping that will be part of week 9 which means it could very easily be another large sales week and there is a chance it could be the best week of the year (hard to say for sure, but expect something middle of the road for now).
  
• Rosey Cheeks:  Well Santa has them because he gets to put all those smiles on the faces of children around the world. But Nintendo and Microsoft have rosey cheeks this holiday because they're going to need to hire all of Santa's elves (and possibly the Reindeer as well) to count the giant pile of money they've each made in the last two months.  It goes without saying that Nintendo's pile is much larger than Microsoft's but to borrow another X-mas analogy it is usually the kid from a poor family who gets the most joy when opening his gifts to find exactly what he or she wanted  because it truly is a surprise.  Microsoft got pretty much exactly what they wanted this Christmas and since Momma Pachter was saying things like "Maybe next year sweetie..." Microsoft wasn't expecting Christmas to be anywhere near this bright (but that won't stop them from yelling "I knew santa would get it for me!  I just knew it!").  The Wii on the other hand was being spoiled rotten with momma Pachter saying "pick out whatever you want dear, you can have it all!!" and so when Nintendo checked their balance sheet to see that they got everything they wanted it just wasn't the same...because they already knew what they were getting for X-mas.  Short Version: Microsoft won the holidays in terms of outperforming expectations, Nintendo won in terms of sheer profit (and holy hell was there a lot of profit to go around this year).
• Red Faces: With a big bulging vein and the look of resigned frustration the folks at Sony's Gaming Division HQ did not have a very happy holiday this year.  From the global economic issues to their own specific economic issues Sony was caught between a rock and hard place with the PS3 this holiday.  In a perfect world they could have cut price but when you have a company laying off 16,000 employees just before the holidays you can tell a company isn't exactly looking for a way to cut profits...ya know?  To make a long story short Sony was busy staying afloat as a company this holiday so they didn't really have time to focus on the far less important game of "King of the Console Hill" (less important to them..not you..I'm sure this is all-important to you =p).  In the end this will prove to be a very smart move and in all likelihood they will survive to fight another day (because companies run for/by fanboys tend to fail rather quickly).  So is the PS3 dead?  Nope.  Is it going to be stuck in last place for at least another 2 years?  Almost certainly.  But fret not, the console, the company, and all the games you love aren't going anywhere, they just aren't #1 anymore...life goes on and it doesn't (shouldn't) change your tastes in consoles, games, or girls (or boys if thats your thing).  So chin up, and keep on playing the games you like on the console you love, because pouting about it isn't going to accomplish anything but making yourself miserable.
  
• Merry Christmas: Merry Christmas VGC'ers!~  As cheesey as it sounds try to remember this Holiday that the gifts, food, and booze are all just decoration on the real purpose.  Regardless of your religion (or lackthereof) everyone should be able to get together with family and just have a good time.  You don't have to be Christian to enjoy the company of your family and if my experiences are any indication this time of year tends to be fertile ground for some of the fondest memories you'll ever have in your life...even though sometimes  their value isn't immediately obvious as it occurs you will find you cherrish these memories years from now.  So have a good time and have a very merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! 
  

Week 9: The dust begins to settle...wait what dust???

• With the Christmas sales officially over and the New Years sales wrapping up shortly the "holiday sales" period is just about over.  While this year's sales weren't exactly suspenseful they were very interesting and somewhat telling.  The Wii may have done what everyone expected it to do but the HD consoles have probably surprised quite a few people. 
  
• 360: Many were starting to view the 360 as the "aging console on the sales decline", but this holiday has shown that it still has quite a bit of kick left and I suspect that MS, sensing Sony's vulnerability, will be pressing this advantage while they have it.  What that ultimately translates into is pretty hard to guess at because with the current economic situation the folks from accounting may be fairly resistant to the idea of any money being spent or revenue being lost, which could result in some "creative solutions". Whatever they decide to do is likely to play a fairly large role in how the late half of this year plays out.
  
• PS3: What is painfully obvious at this point is that the PS3 needs a pricecut to have any appeal to mass market consumers.  This doesn't mean that the flood gates are waiting to open, it just means that they need to get to a lower price point to stay competitive.  What is also painfully obvious with the recent 16,000 job layoff at Sony is that they have no desire to cut into their revenue by slicing $100 off the PS3 any time in the near future...but they may be forced to in order to protect a much larger investment in the generation as a whole.  I've said for a long time now that the assumption of a $100 price cut is folly and that is doubly so given the situation.  It's certainly possible but I honestly think the far more likely scenario is a $50 or $75 price cut.  Whatever the cut turns out to be (and I do think there will be one this year at some point) it will be whatever Sony has calculated to be the smallest they can reasonably get away with.
• Wii: Normally by the start of a console's third year on the market the big question is how much and when the next price cut will be...but for the Wii the question is more along the lines of "When is this thing going to stop selling out???", at least that is the case in the Americas and in limited parts of the EU.  The answer is, and I'm fairly confident in saying this, it will finally be this year.   Contrary to standard fanboy logic, this doesn't mean a drop in sales. The reason for that is due to supply catching up with demand (as opposed to demand dropping to the level of supply), and as such sales should increase or remain steady. Don't get me wrong though, there will still be sporadic sellouts throughout the US...but it won't be the constant vacuum like it has been to date. 

PS - Feel free to leave your predictions, questions, comments, critique, ideas, etc...

This is interesting. And with you, I'm sure there's gonna be a butload of graphs.

What is interesting here, is that I see the console with the biggest YoY increase this far, to have the lowest YoY increase in the holidays. That's odd really.

Nah, not too many graphs for this.  I think I'll probably do one graph per console for a look at lifetime holiday sales next week, and then I have another graph I think I want to add in week 3 or 4.  Of course I might come up with even more stuff to add between now and then...depends on how much free time I have (not much lately).

I don't see the PS3 hitting 230k next week, theres going to be a 15k drop in Japan so they'll need to make up another 45k from the rest of the world.

I can see the 360 exceeding the mark next week however. 200k is pretty much what it did this week.

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RolStoppable said: The Wii is doing horrible, nearly all of the numbers are red for 2008.

Wii Doomed = CONFIRMED

Seriously though, I'm really interested to see if week 8 is better or worse this year...that week is going to be huge one way or the other.  1.46M units in a single week is ungodly...but if Nintendo doesn't break that single week record this year there is going to be a lot of dissapointment (and excitement, depending on who you talk to)

Very interesting. I'll come checking back here.
(>'.')>

Looks like the 360 shouldn't have too much trouble matching its previous totals, though the PS3 might. (It has over 110k to make up between U.S and Japan this week.)

really really cool thread!