If everyone stays at EXACTLY their current selling rate, the Wii would miss the 50% mark by 5.5 million
360 seems to have actually slowed down when you compare this year to last.
Sony does seem to be increasing its selling rate, but it still is hard to tell if this is a permanent change, or just a hump created by the drop in price combined with the christmas holiday sales. It is entirely possible that the new price point is enough for people to be willing to go for it, but no way to be certain until after the christmas season.
If nintendo is still doing 1.8 million every month then they can go as high as 21.6 million consoles by the end of 08, which is only provided they don't increase production again. If they manage to maintain a 90% sellout rate, then they will have increased their sales from 13.5 per year to 19.5 which covers the 5.5 million consoles needed to pull out 50% market share by the end of 08, and then some
of course, as has been said, Sony does seem to be doing a bit better with the new price drop, but 360 is possibly even slowing down. Still, i feel that my prediction is pretty well supportive.
I might as well get into the whole VGchartz spirit, so does anyone want to take me up on the bet that Wii will be at least 48% by the end of 08 and achieve 50% marketshare by mid 09?
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Seppukuties is like LBP Lite, on crack. Play it already!Currently wrapped up in: Half Life, Portal, and User Created Source Mods
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